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Pescara U19 vs Benevento U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Pescara U19
Pescara U19
FT
1 – 2
Benevento U19
Benevento U19
4/1/2023Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 24Centro Sportivo Delfino Pescara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Pescara U1950%
×Draw23%
Benevento U1927%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pescara U19
1.77
Benevento U19
1.25

Pescara U19 creates 42% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 84 away

creates per match

Pescara U19
1.93
Benevento U19
1.24

allows per match

Pescara U19
1.25
Benevento U19
1.61

finishing

Pescara U19+0.00on par
Benevento U19+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pescara U19 ↓

Benevento U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Pescara U19 or draw
73%
Pescara U19 or Benevento U19
77%
Draw or Benevento U19
50%

Winning margin

Pescara U19 wins by 2+
27%
Benevento U19 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Pescara U19 1+ goals
83%
Pescara U19 2+ goals
53%
Pescara U19 3+ goals
26%
Benevento U19 1+ goals
71%
Benevento U19 2+ goals
36%
Benevento U19 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Pescara U19 (draw refunded)
65%
Benevento U19 (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pescara U19 at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.25 · 72 matches

Benevento U19 away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.61 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pescara U19 attack 1.93 + Benevento U19 defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.77

Benevento U19 attack 1.24 + Pescara U19 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Pescara U19 scores more
50%
level
23%
Benevento U19 scores more
27%

Pescara U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Pescara U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 2: Pescara U19 1–2 Benevento U19

Benevento U19 beat Pescara U19 2-1 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Delfino Pescara in Città Sant'Angelo.