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Perth vs Stirling Lions — Western Australia NPL 2026

Perth
Perth
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
Stirling Lions
Stirling Lions
3/22/2024Western Australia NPLWestern Australia NPL · Round 2BGC Stadium - Dorrien Gardens

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Perth42%
×Draw23%
Stirling Lions35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Perth
1.77
Stirling Lions
1.60

Perth creates 11% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 67 away

creates per match

Perth
2.01
Stirling Lions
1.72

allows per match

Perth
1.49
Stirling Lions
1.54

finishing

Perth+0.00on par
Stirling Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Perth ↓

Stirling Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Perth or draw
65%
Perth or Stirling Lions
77%
Draw or Stirling Lions
58%

Winning margin

Perth wins by 2+
22%
Stirling Lions wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Perth 1+ goals
83%
Perth 2+ goals
53%
Perth 3+ goals
26%
Stirling Lions 1+ goals
80%
Stirling Lions 2+ goals
47%
Stirling Lions 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Perth (draw refunded)
55%
Stirling Lions (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Perth at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.49 · 85 matches

Stirling Lions away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.54 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Perth attack 2.01 + Stirling Lions defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.77

Stirling Lions attack 1.72 + Perth defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Perth scores more
42%
level
23%
Stirling Lions scores more
35%

Perth at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Perth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Western Australia NPL: Perth 2–3 Stirling Lions

Stirling Lions beat Perth 3-2 in Western Australia NPL on March 22, 2024.

The match was played at BGC Stadium - Dorrien Gardens in Perth.