Perth Glory 1–0 Western Sydney Wanderers

Perth Glory

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Western Sydney Wanderers

1/6/2023

A-League · Round 11Macedonia Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Perth Glory42%

×Draw23%

Western Sydney Wanderers35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Perth GloryExpected goals in this matchWestern Sydney Wanderers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.53

Perth Glory

1.69

Western Sydney Wanderers

1.53

Perth Glory creates 10% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 105 away

1.60

creates per match

1.51

1.55

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Perth Glory

1.60

Western Sydney Wanderers

1.51

allows per match

Perth Glory

1.55

Western Sydney Wanderers

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Perth Glory+0.00on par

Western Sydney Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Perth Glory ↓

Western Sydney Wanderers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Perth Glory or draw

65%

Perth Glory or Western Sydney Wanderers

77%

Draw or Western Sydney Wanderers

58%

Winning margin

Perth Glory wins by 2+

21%

Western Sydney Wanderers wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Perth Glory 1+ goals

82%

Perth Glory 2+ goals

50%

Perth Glory 3+ goals

24%

Western Sydney Wanderers 1+ goals

78%

Western Sydney Wanderers 2+ goals

45%

Western Sydney Wanderers 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Perth Glory (draw refunded)

54%

Western Sydney Wanderers (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Perth Glory at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.55 · 106 matches

Western Sydney Wanderers away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.77 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Perth Glory attack 1.60 + Western Sydney Wanderers defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.69

Western Sydney Wanderers attack 1.51 + Perth Glory defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Perth Glory scores more

42%

level

23%

Western Sydney Wanderers scores more

35%

Perth Glory at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Perth Glory will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff