Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Perth Glory vs Sydney — A-League 2018

Perth Glory
Perth Glory
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sydney
Sydney
4/3/2024A-LeagueA-League · Round 12HBF Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Perth Glory37%
×Draw25%
Sydney39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Perth Glory
1.45
Sydney
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 106 home / 112 away

creates per match

Perth Glory
1.60
Sydney
1.46

allows per match

Perth Glory
1.55
Sydney
1.30

finishing

Perth Glory+0.00on par
Sydney+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Perth Glory ↓

Sydney →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Perth Glory or draw
61%
Perth Glory or Sydney
75%
Draw or Sydney
63%

Winning margin

Perth Glory wins by 2+
17%
Sydney wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Perth Glory 1+ goals
77%
Perth Glory 2+ goals
42%
Perth Glory 3+ goals
18%
Sydney 1+ goals
78%
Sydney 2+ goals
44%
Sydney 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Perth Glory (draw refunded)
49%
Sydney (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Perth Glory at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.55 · 106 matches

Sydney away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.30 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Perth Glory attack 1.60 + Sydney defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.45

Sydney attack 1.46 + Perth Glory defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Perth Glory scores more
37%
level
25%
Sydney scores more
39%

Sydney at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sydney will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

A-League: Perth Glory 1–1 Sydney

Perth Glory and Sydney drew 1-1 in A-League on April 3, 2024.

The match was played at HBF Park in Perth.