Perth Glory 2–2 Newcastle Jets: Result & Stats

Perth Glory

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Newcastle Jets

10/22/2023

A-League · Round 1HBF Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Perth Glory42%

×Draw24%

Newcastle Jets34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Perth GloryExpected goals in this matchNewcastle Jets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.44

Perth Glory

1.64

Newcastle Jets

1.44

Perth Glory creates 14% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 107 away

1.60

creates per match

1.33

1.55

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Perth Glory

1.60

Newcastle Jets

1.33

allows per match

Perth Glory

1.55

Newcastle Jets

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Perth Glory+0.00on par

Newcastle Jets+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Perth Glory ↓

Newcastle Jets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Perth Glory or draw

66%

Perth Glory or Newcastle Jets

76%

Draw or Newcastle Jets

58%

Winning margin

Perth Glory wins by 2+

22%

Newcastle Jets wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Perth Glory 1+ goals

81%

Perth Glory 2+ goals

49%

Perth Glory 3+ goals

23%

Newcastle Jets 1+ goals

76%

Newcastle Jets 2+ goals

42%

Newcastle Jets 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Perth Glory (draw refunded)

56%

Newcastle Jets (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Perth Glory at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.55 · 106 matches

Newcastle Jets away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Perth Glory attack 1.60 + Newcastle Jets defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.64

Newcastle Jets attack 1.33 + Perth Glory defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Perth Glory scores more

42%

level

24%

Newcastle Jets scores more

34%

Perth Glory at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Perth Glory will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff