Perth Glory 2–1 Melbourne Victory: Result & Stats

Perth Glory

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Melbourne Victory

C. Ikonomidis 56'

B. Fornaroli 52'

R. Gestede 79'

5/9/2021

A-League · Round 20HBF Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Perth Glory39%

×Draw24%

Melbourne Victory36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Perth GloryExpected goals in this matchMelbourne Victory

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.46

Perth Glory

1.52

Melbourne Victory

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 106 home / 109 away

1.60

creates per match

1.36

1.55

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Perth Glory

1.60

Melbourne Victory

1.36

allows per match

Perth Glory

1.55

Melbourne Victory

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Perth Glory+0.00on par

Melbourne Victory+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Perth Glory ↓

Melbourne Victory →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Perth Glory or draw

64%

Perth Glory or Melbourne Victory

76%

Draw or Melbourne Victory

61%

Winning margin

Perth Glory wins by 2+

19%

Melbourne Victory wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Perth Glory 1+ goals

78%

Perth Glory 2+ goals

45%

Perth Glory 3+ goals

20%

Melbourne Victory 1+ goals

77%

Melbourne Victory 2+ goals

43%

Melbourne Victory 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Perth Glory (draw refunded)

52%

Melbourne Victory (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Perth Glory at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.55 · 106 matches

Melbourne Victory away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.44 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Perth Glory attack 1.60 + Melbourne Victory defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.52

Melbourne Victory attack 1.36 + Perth Glory defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Perth Glory scores more

39%

level

24%

Melbourne Victory scores more

36%

Perth Glory at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Perth Glory will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

D. Ryan

Melbourne Victory · D

7.9

Match Events

24'

Callum Timmins

34'

Kosuke Ota

46'

C. Armiento← J. Chianese

48'

Nick Ansell

50'

A. Anderson← E. Kamsoba

52'

B. Fornaroli↳ Diego Castro

56'

C. Ikonomidis↳ C. Armiento

62'

A. Keogh← Diego Castro

62'

D. Stynes← B. Fornaroli

65'

B. Wilson← C. Timmins

72'

D. Ingham← C. Bramwell

75'

Robbie Kruse

79'

R. Gestede

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PerthMelbourne

Overview

64%Possession36%

24Total Shots13

11Corners8

11Fouls13

Shots

24Total Shots13

5On Target5

10Off Target3

9Blocked5

14Inside Box11

10Outside Box2

Passing

64%Possession36%

647Total Passes347

585Accurate Passes277

90%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls13

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

1Offsides2