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Perth Glory vs Macarthur — A-League 2018

Perth Glory
Perth Glory
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Macarthur
Macarthur
5/23/2021A-LeagueA-League · Round 22HBF Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Perth Glory43%
×Draw23%
Macarthur33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Perth Glory
1.70
Macarthur
1.46

Perth Glory creates 16% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 81 away

creates per match

Perth Glory
1.60
Macarthur
1.38

allows per match

Perth Glory
1.55
Macarthur
1.79

finishing

Perth Glory+0.00on par
Macarthur+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Perth Glory ↓

Macarthur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Perth Glory or draw
67%
Perth Glory or Macarthur
77%
Draw or Macarthur
57%

Winning margin

Perth Glory wins by 2+
23%
Macarthur wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Perth Glory 1+ goals
82%
Perth Glory 2+ goals
51%
Perth Glory 3+ goals
24%
Macarthur 1+ goals
77%
Macarthur 2+ goals
43%
Macarthur 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Perth Glory (draw refunded)
57%
Macarthur (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Perth Glory at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.55 · 106 matches

Macarthur away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.79 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Perth Glory attack 1.60 + Macarthur defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.70

Macarthur attack 1.38 + Perth Glory defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Perth Glory scores more
43%
level
23%
Macarthur scores more
33%

Perth Glory at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Perth Glory will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Perth Glory vs Macarthur

Perth Glory and Macarthur drew 1-1 in A-League on May 23, 2021.

The match was played at HBF Park in Perth.