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Perth Glory FC vs Sydney FC — A-League 2018

Perth Glory FC
Perth Glory FC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Sydney FC
Sydney FC
12/21/2018A-LeagueA-League · Round 9nib Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Perth Glory FC37%
×Draw25%
Sydney FC39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Perth Glory FC
1.45
Sydney FC
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 106 home / 112 away

creates per match

Perth Glory FC
1.60
Sydney FC
1.46

allows per match

Perth Glory FC
1.55
Sydney FC
1.30

finishing

Perth Glory FC+0.00on par
Sydney FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Perth Glory FC ↓

Sydney FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Perth Glory FC or draw
61%
Perth Glory FC or Sydney FC
75%
Draw or Sydney FC
63%

Winning margin

Perth Glory FC wins by 2+
17%
Sydney FC wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Perth Glory FC 1+ goals
77%
Perth Glory FC 2+ goals
42%
Perth Glory FC 3+ goals
18%
Sydney FC 1+ goals
78%
Sydney FC 2+ goals
44%
Sydney FC 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Perth Glory FC (draw refunded)
49%
Sydney FC (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Perth Glory FC at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.55 · 106 matches

Sydney FC away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.30 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Perth Glory FC attack 1.60 + Sydney FC defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.45

Sydney FC attack 1.46 + Perth Glory FC defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Perth Glory FC scores more
37%
level
25%
Sydney FC scores more
39%

Sydney FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sydney FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Perth Glory FC vs Sydney FC

Sydney FC beat Perth Glory FC 2-1 in A-League on December 21, 2018.

The match was played at nib Stadium in Perth.