Perth Glory FC 0–2 Melbourne Victory

Perth Glory FC

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Melbourne Victory

K. Honda 67' (pen)

O. Toivonen 25'

3/30/2019

A-League · Round 23nib Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Perth Glory FC39%

×Draw24%

Melbourne Victory36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Perth Glory FCExpected goals in this matchMelbourne Victory

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.46

Perth Glory FC

1.52

Melbourne Victory

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 106 home / 109 away

1.60

creates per match

1.36

1.55

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Perth Glory FC

1.60

Melbourne Victory

1.36

allows per match

Perth Glory FC

1.55

Melbourne Victory

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Perth Glory FC+0.00on par

Melbourne Victory+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Perth Glory FC ↓

Melbourne Victory →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Perth Glory FC or draw

64%

Perth Glory FC or Melbourne Victory

76%

Draw or Melbourne Victory

61%

Winning margin

Perth Glory FC wins by 2+

19%

Melbourne Victory wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Perth Glory FC 1+ goals

78%

Perth Glory FC 2+ goals

45%

Perth Glory FC 3+ goals

20%

Melbourne Victory 1+ goals

77%

Melbourne Victory 2+ goals

43%

Melbourne Victory 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Perth Glory FC (draw refunded)

52%

Melbourne Victory (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Perth Glory FC at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.55 · 106 matches

Melbourne Victory away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.44 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Perth Glory FC attack 1.60 + Melbourne Victory defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.52

Melbourne Victory attack 1.36 + Perth Glory FC defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Perth Glory FC scores more

39%

level

24%

Melbourne Victory scores more

36%

Perth Glory FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Perth Glory FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

L. Thomas

Melbourne Victory · G

8.4

Match Events

24'

25'

29'

45'

60'

63'

67'

K. HondaPenalty

72'

J. Brimmer← Juande

76'

C. Brown← T. Antonis

81'

B. Santalab← D. Đulbić

86'

E. Kamsoba← K. Barbarouses

88'

T. Deng← G. Niedermeier

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PerthMelbourne

Overview

61%Possession39%

23Total Shots10

16Corners1

12Fouls15

Shots

23Total Shots10

6On Target5

8Off Target2

9Blocked3

16Inside Box5

7Outside Box5

Passing

61%Possession39%

542Total Passes363

442Accurate Passes249

82%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

12Fouls15

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2