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Perth Glory FC vs Brisbane Roar FC — A-League 2018

Perth Glory FC
Perth Glory FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Brisbane Roar FC
Brisbane Roar FC
11/3/2018A-LeagueA-League · Round 3nib Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Perth Glory FC45%
×Draw24%
Brisbane Roar FC31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Perth Glory FC
1.66
Brisbane Roar FC
1.35

Perth Glory FC creates 23% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 105 away

creates per match

Perth Glory FC
1.60
Brisbane Roar FC
1.15

allows per match

Perth Glory FC
1.55
Brisbane Roar FC
1.72

finishing

Perth Glory FC+0.00on par
Brisbane Roar FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Perth Glory FC ↓

Brisbane Roar FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Perth Glory FC or draw
69%
Perth Glory FC or Brisbane Roar FC
76%
Draw or Brisbane Roar FC
55%

Winning margin

Perth Glory FC wins by 2+
23%
Brisbane Roar FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Perth Glory FC 1+ goals
81%
Perth Glory FC 2+ goals
49%
Perth Glory FC 3+ goals
23%
Brisbane Roar FC 1+ goals
74%
Brisbane Roar FC 2+ goals
39%
Brisbane Roar FC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Perth Glory FC (draw refunded)
59%
Brisbane Roar FC (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Perth Glory FC at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.55 · 106 matches

Brisbane Roar FC away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.72 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Perth Glory FC attack 1.60 + Brisbane Roar FC defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.66

Brisbane Roar FC attack 1.15 + Perth Glory FC defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Perth Glory FC scores more
45%
level
24%
Brisbane Roar FC scores more
31%

Perth Glory FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Perth Glory FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Perth Glory FC vs Brisbane Roar FC

Perth Glory FC beat Brisbane Roar FC 2-1 in A-League on November 3, 2018.

The match was played at nib Stadium in Perth.