Persepolis FC 0–0 Naft Masjed Soleyman

Persepolis FC

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Naft Masjed Soleyman

8/17/2018

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 4Azadi Stadium (Tehrān (Teheran))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Persepolis FC59%

×Draw28%

Naft Masjed Soleyman13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Persepolis FCExpected goals in this matchNaft Masjed Soleyman

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.48

Persepolis FC

1.35

Naft Masjed Soleyman

0.48

Persepolis FC creates 181% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 74 away

1.44

creates per match

0.45

0.51

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Persepolis FC

1.44

Naft Masjed Soleyman

0.45

allows per match

Persepolis FC

0.51

Naft Masjed Soleyman

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Persepolis FC+0.00on par

Naft Masjed Soleyman+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No72
Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Persepolis FC ↓

Naft Masjed Soleyman →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–022%

1–110%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Persepolis FC or draw

87%

Persepolis FC or Naft Masjed Soleyman

72%

Draw or Naft Masjed Soleyman

41%

Winning margin

Persepolis FC wins by 2+

29%

Naft Masjed Soleyman wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Persepolis FC 1+ goals

74%

Persepolis FC 2+ goals

39%

Persepolis FC 3+ goals

15%

Naft Masjed Soleyman 1+ goals

38%

Naft Masjed Soleyman 2+ goals

8%

Naft Masjed Soleyman 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Persepolis FC (draw refunded)

82%

Naft Masjed Soleyman (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Persepolis FC at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.51 · 115 matches

Naft Masjed Soleyman away — creates 0.45, concedes 1.26 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Persepolis FC attack 1.44 + Naft Masjed Soleyman defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.35

Naft Masjed Soleyman attack 0.45 + Persepolis FC defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Persepolis FC scores more

59%

level

28%

Naft Masjed Soleyman scores more

13%

Persepolis FC at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Persepolis FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff