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Peralada vs Vilafranca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Peralada
Peralada
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vilafranca
Vilafranca
10/13/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 8Estadio Municipal de Peralada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Peralada48%
×Draw26%
Vilafranca26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peralada
1.52
Vilafranca
1.06

Peralada creates 43% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 74 away

creates per match

Peralada
1.44
Vilafranca
1.12

allows per match

Peralada
1.00
Vilafranca
1.59

finishing

Peralada+0.00on par
Vilafranca+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peralada ↓

Vilafranca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Peralada or draw
74%
Peralada or Vilafranca
74%
Draw or Vilafranca
52%

Winning margin

Peralada wins by 2+
24%
Vilafranca wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Peralada 1+ goals
78%
Peralada 2+ goals
45%
Peralada 3+ goals
20%
Vilafranca 1+ goals
65%
Vilafranca 2+ goals
29%
Vilafranca 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Peralada (draw refunded)
64%
Vilafranca (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peralada at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.00 · 111 matches

Vilafranca away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.59 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peralada attack 1.44 + Vilafranca defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.52

Vilafranca attack 1.12 + Peralada defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Peralada scores more
48%
level
26%
Vilafranca scores more
26%

Peralada at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Peralada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Peralada vs Vilafranca

Peralada beat Vilafranca 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on October 13, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Peralada in Peralada.