Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

PEPO vs PK-35 — Suomen Cup 2018

PEPO
PEPO
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
PK-35
PK-35
3/13/2021Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Play-off RoundAmiksen tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

PEPO7%
×Draw11%
PK-3582%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PEPO
0.94
PK-35
3.38

PK-35 creates 260% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 13 away

creates per match

PEPO
1.33
PK-35
3.77

allows per match

PEPO
3.00
PK-35
0.54

finishing

PEPO+0.00on par
PK-35+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PEPO ↓

PK-35 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–15%
0–28%
0–39%
0–48%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–28%
1–39%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (9%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

PEPO or draw
18%
PEPO or PK-35
89%
Draw or PK-35
93%

Winning margin

PEPO wins by 2+
2%
PK-35 wins by 2+
64%

Team goals

PEPO 1+ goals
61%
PEPO 2+ goals
24%
PEPO 3+ goals
7%
PK-35 1+ goals
96%
PK-35 2+ goals
84%
PK-35 3+ goals
64%

Draw no bet

PEPO (draw refunded)
8%
PK-35 (draw refunded)
92%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PEPO at home — creates 1.33, concedes 3.00 · 6 matches

PK-35 away — creates 3.77, concedes 0.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PEPO attack 1.33 + PK-35 defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.94

PK-35 attack 3.77 + PEPO defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

PEPO scores more
7%
level
11%
PK-35 scores more
82%

PK-35 at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "PK-35 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

PEPO 0 – 3 PK-35

PK-35 beat PEPO 3-0 in Suomen Cup on March 13, 2021.

The match was played at Amiksen tekonurmi in Lappeenranta.