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PEPO vs MiPK — Kakkonen - Lohko A 2018

PEPO
PEPO
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
MiPK
MiPK
4/29/2018Kakkonen - Lohko AKakkonen - Lohko A · Round 1Amiksen tekonurmi (Lappeenranta)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

PEPO62%
×Draw20%
MiPK19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PEPO
2.21
MiPK
1.13

PEPO creates 96% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 33 away

creates per match

PEPO
2.24
MiPK
1.24

allows per match

PEPO
1.01
MiPK
2.18

finishing

PEPO+0.00on par
MiPK+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PEPO ↓

MiPK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

PEPO or draw
81%
PEPO or MiPK
80%
Draw or MiPK
38%

Winning margin

PEPO wins by 2+
39%
MiPK wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

PEPO 1+ goals
89%
PEPO 2+ goals
65%
PEPO 3+ goals
38%
MiPK 1+ goals
68%
MiPK 2+ goals
31%
MiPK 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

PEPO (draw refunded)
77%
MiPK (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PEPO at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.01 · 68 matches

MiPK away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.18 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PEPO attack 2.24 + MiPK defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.21

MiPK attack 1.24 + PEPO defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

PEPO scores more
62%
level
20%
MiPK scores more
19%

PEPO at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "PEPO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: PEPO vs MiPK

PEPO beat MiPK 2-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko A on April 29, 2018.

The match was played at Amiksen tekonurmi (Lappeenranta).