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Peoria vs Saint Louis — USL League Two 2018

Peoria
Peoria
PST
00:00
Saint Louis
Saint Louis
6/6/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 21Shea Stadium (Peoria, Illinois)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Peoria49%
×Draw20%
Saint Louis30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peoria
2.24
Saint Louis
1.73

Peoria creates 29% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 10 away

creates per match

Peoria
2.68
Saint Louis
2.20

allows per match

Peoria
1.26
Saint Louis
1.80

finishing

Peoria+0.00on par
Saint Louis+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peoria ↓

Saint Louis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
75%25%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Peoria or draw
70%
Peoria or Saint Louis
80%
Draw or Saint Louis
51%

Winning margin

Peoria wins by 2+
29%
Saint Louis wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Peoria 1+ goals
89%
Peoria 2+ goals
65%
Peoria 3+ goals
38%
Saint Louis 1+ goals
82%
Saint Louis 2+ goals
52%
Saint Louis 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Peoria (draw refunded)
62%
Saint Louis (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peoria at home — creates 2.68, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

Saint Louis away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peoria attack 2.68 + Saint Louis defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.24

Saint Louis attack 2.20 + Peoria defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Peoria scores more
49%
level
20%
Saint Louis scores more
30%

Peoria at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Peoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Peoria face Saint Louis (USL League Two)

USL League Two returns with Peoria hosting Saint Louis. Match starts June 6, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Peoria host Saint Louis at Shea Stadium (Peoria, Illinois).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.