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Peoria vs Kaw Valley — USL League Two 2018

Peoria
Peoria
PST
00:00
Kaw Valley
Kaw Valley
5/29/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 14Shea Stadium (Peoria, Illinois)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Peoria56%
×Draw21%
Kaw Valley23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peoria
2.09
Kaw Valley
1.27

Peoria creates 65% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 18 away

creates per match

Peoria
2.68
Kaw Valley
1.28

allows per match

Peoria
1.26
Kaw Valley
1.50

finishing

Peoria+0.00on par
Kaw Valley+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peoria ↓

Kaw Valley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Peoria or draw
77%
Peoria or Kaw Valley
79%
Draw or Kaw Valley
44%

Winning margin

Peoria wins by 2+
34%
Kaw Valley wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Peoria 1+ goals
88%
Peoria 2+ goals
62%
Peoria 3+ goals
34%
Kaw Valley 1+ goals
72%
Kaw Valley 2+ goals
36%
Kaw Valley 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Peoria (draw refunded)
71%
Kaw Valley (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peoria at home — creates 2.68, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

Kaw Valley away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peoria attack 2.68 + Kaw Valley defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.09

Kaw Valley attack 1.28 + Peoria defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Peoria scores more
56%
level
21%
Kaw Valley scores more
23%

Peoria at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Peoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Peoria host Kaw Valley

May 29, 2020: Peoria take on Kaw Valley in USL League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Peoria host Kaw Valley at Shea Stadium (Peoria, Illinois).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.