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Penya Encarnada vs Esperança d'Andorra — 1a Divisió 2019

Penya Encarnada
Penya Encarnada
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Esperança d'Andorra
Esperança d'Andorra
9/17/20231a Divisió1a Divisió · Round 1Centre d'Entrenament de la FAF 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Penya Encarnada54%
×Draw22%
Esperança d'Andorra25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Penya Encarnada
2.02
Esperança d'Andorra
1.31

Penya Encarnada creates 54% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 41 away

creates per match

Penya Encarnada
1.11
Esperança d'Andorra
1.02

allows per match

Penya Encarnada
1.61
Esperança d'Andorra
2.93

finishing

Penya Encarnada+0.00on par
Esperança d'Andorra+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Penya Encarnada ↓

Esperança d'Andorra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Penya Encarnada or draw
75%
Penya Encarnada or Esperança d'Andorra
78%
Draw or Esperança d'Andorra
46%

Winning margin

Penya Encarnada wins by 2+
31%
Esperança d'Andorra wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Penya Encarnada 1+ goals
87%
Penya Encarnada 2+ goals
60%
Penya Encarnada 3+ goals
33%
Esperança d'Andorra 1+ goals
73%
Esperança d'Andorra 2+ goals
38%
Esperança d'Andorra 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Penya Encarnada (draw refunded)
68%
Esperança d'Andorra (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Penya Encarnada at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.61 · 64 matches

Esperança d'Andorra away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.93 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Penya Encarnada attack 1.11 + Esperança d'Andorra defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.02

Esperança d'Andorra attack 1.02 + Penya Encarnada defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Penya Encarnada scores more
54%
level
22%
Esperança d'Andorra scores more
25%

Penya Encarnada at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Penya Encarnada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Penya Encarnada vs Esperança d'Andorra

Penya Encarnada beat Esperança d'Andorra 1-0 in 1a Divisió on September 17, 2023.

The match was played at Centre d'Entrenament de la FAF 1 in Santa Coloma.