Penya Encarnada 1–2 Atlètic Club d'Escaldes

Penya Encarnada

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Atlètic Club d'Escaldes

4/7/2024

1a Divisió · Round 21Centre d'Entrenament de la FAF 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Penya Encarnada24%

×Draw24%

Atlètic Club d'Escaldes52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Penya EncarnadaExpected goals in this matchAtlètic Club d'Escaldes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.70

Penya Encarnada

1.06

Atlètic Club d'Escaldes

1.70

Atlètic Club d'Escaldes creates 60% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 88 away

1.11

creates per match

1.78

1.61

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Penya Encarnada

1.11

Atlètic Club d'Escaldes

1.78

allows per match

Penya Encarnada

1.61

Atlètic Club d'Escaldes

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Penya Encarnada+0.00on par

Atlètic Club d'Escaldes+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Penya Encarnada ↓

Atlètic Club d'Escaldes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Penya Encarnada or draw

48%

Penya Encarnada or Atlètic Club d'Escaldes

76%

Draw or Atlètic Club d'Escaldes

76%

Winning margin

Penya Encarnada wins by 2+

9%

Atlètic Club d'Escaldes wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Penya Encarnada 1+ goals

65%

Penya Encarnada 2+ goals

29%

Penya Encarnada 3+ goals

9%

Atlètic Club d'Escaldes 1+ goals

82%

Atlètic Club d'Escaldes 2+ goals

51%

Atlètic Club d'Escaldes 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Penya Encarnada (draw refunded)

31%

Atlètic Club d'Escaldes (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Penya Encarnada at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.61 · 64 matches

Atlètic Club d'Escaldes away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.00 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Penya Encarnada attack 1.11 + Atlètic Club d'Escaldes defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Atlètic Club d'Escaldes attack 1.78 + Penya Encarnada defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Penya Encarnada scores more

24%

level

24%

Atlètic Club d'Escaldes scores more

52%

Atlètic Club d'Escaldes at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Atlètic Club d'Escaldes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff