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Peniche vs Marinhense — Taça de Portugal 2018

Peniche
Peniche
AET
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Marinhense
Marinhense
9/9/2023Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 1st RoundEstádio do Peniche

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Peniche27%
×Draw18%
Marinhense55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peniche
1.93
Marinhense
2.75

Marinhense creates 42% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Peniche
3.25
Marinhense
3.00

allows per match

Peniche
2.50
Marinhense
0.60

finishing

Peniche+0.00on par
Marinhense+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peniche ↓

Marinhense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Peniche or draw
45%
Peniche or Marinhense
82%
Draw or Marinhense
73%

Winning margin

Peniche wins by 2+
13%
Marinhense wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Peniche 1+ goals
85%
Peniche 2+ goals
57%
Peniche 3+ goals
30%
Marinhense 1+ goals
93%
Marinhense 2+ goals
75%
Marinhense 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

Peniche (draw refunded)
33%
Marinhense (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peniche at home — creates 3.25, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

Marinhense away — creates 3.00, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peniche attack 3.25 + Marinhense defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.93

Marinhense attack 3.00 + Peniche defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Peniche scores more
27%
level
18%
Marinhense scores more
55%

Marinhense at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Marinhense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Peniche vs Marinhense

Peniche and Marinhense drew 1-1 in Taça de Portugal on September 9, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio do Peniche in Peniche.