Comunicaciones 0–0 San Miguel: Result & Stats

Comunicaciones

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

San Miguel

10/23/2017

Primera B Metropolitana · Round 2Estadio Alfredo Ramos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Comunicaciones51%

×Draw28%

San Miguel21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ComunicacionesExpected goals in this matchSan Miguel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.75

Comunicaciones

1.35

San Miguel

0.75

Comunicaciones creates 80% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 7 away

1.12

creates per match

0.57

0.93

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Comunicaciones

1.12

San Miguel

0.57

allows per match

Comunicaciones

0.93

San Miguel

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Comunicaciones+0.00on par

San Miguel+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comunicaciones ↓

San Miguel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Comunicaciones or draw

79%

Comunicaciones or San Miguel

72%

Draw or San Miguel

49%

Winning margin

Comunicaciones wins by 2+

25%

San Miguel wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Comunicaciones 1+ goals

74%

Comunicaciones 2+ goals

39%

Comunicaciones 3+ goals

15%

San Miguel 1+ goals

53%

San Miguel 2+ goals

17%

San Miguel 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Comunicaciones (draw refunded)

71%

San Miguel (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comunicaciones at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.93 · 41 matches

San Miguel away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comunicaciones attack 1.12 + San Miguel defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.35

San Miguel attack 0.57 + Comunicaciones defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Comunicaciones scores more

51%

level

28%

San Miguel scores more

21%

Comunicaciones at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Comunicaciones will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff