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Penarol vs Cerro — Primera División - Apertura 2026

Penarol
Penarol
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Cerro
Cerro
3/9/2024Primera División - AperturaPrimera División - Apertura · Apertura - 4Estadio Campeón del Siglo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Penarol58%
×Draw24%
Cerro18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Penarol
1.70
Cerro
0.81

Penarol creates 110% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 66 away

creates per match

Penarol
1.67
Cerro
0.80

allows per match

Penarol
0.81
Cerro
1.73

finishing

Penarol+0.00on par
Cerro+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Penarol ↓

Cerro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Penarol or draw
82%
Penarol or Cerro
76%
Draw or Cerro
42%

Winning margin

Penarol wins by 2+
33%
Cerro wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Penarol 1+ goals
82%
Penarol 2+ goals
51%
Penarol 3+ goals
24%
Cerro 1+ goals
56%
Cerro 2+ goals
19%
Cerro 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Penarol (draw refunded)
77%
Cerro (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Penarol at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.81 · 88 matches

Cerro away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.73 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Penarol attack 1.67 + Cerro defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.70

Cerro attack 0.80 + Penarol defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Penarol scores more
58%
level
24%
Cerro scores more
18%

Penarol at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Penarol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División - Apertura: Penarol 3–0 Cerro

Penarol beat Cerro 3-0 in Primera División - Apertura on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Campeón del Siglo in Montevideo.