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Penarol vs Boston River — Primera División - Apertura 2018

Penarol
Penarol
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Boston River
Boston River
7/16/2023Primera División - AperturaPrimera División - Apertura · Intermediate Round - 6Estadio Campeón del Siglo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Penarol50%
×Draw26%
Boston River24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Penarol
1.47
Boston River
0.92

Penarol creates 60% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 82 away

creates per match

Penarol
1.67
Boston River
1.02

allows per match

Penarol
0.81
Boston River
1.27

finishing

Penarol+0.00on par
Boston River+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Penarol ↓

Boston River →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Penarol or draw
76%
Penarol or Boston River
74%
Draw or Boston River
50%

Winning margin

Penarol wins by 2+
25%
Boston River wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Penarol 1+ goals
77%
Penarol 2+ goals
43%
Penarol 3+ goals
18%
Boston River 1+ goals
60%
Boston River 2+ goals
23%
Boston River 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Penarol (draw refunded)
68%
Boston River (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Penarol at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.81 · 88 matches

Boston River away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.27 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Penarol attack 1.67 + Boston River defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.47

Boston River attack 1.02 + Penarol defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Penarol scores more
50%
level
26%
Boston River scores more
24%

Penarol at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Penarol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División - Apertura: Penarol 2–1 Boston River

Penarol beat Boston River 2-1 in Primera División - Apertura on July 16, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Campeón del Siglo in Montevideo.