Penafiel 1–0 União de Leiria: Result & Stats

Penafiel

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

União de Leiria

12/16/2023

Segunda Liga · Round 14Estádio Municipal 25 de Abril

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Penafiel36%

×Draw28%

União de Leiria36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PenafielExpected goals in this matchUnião de Leiria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

Penafiel

1.21

União de Leiria

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 133 home / 51 away

1.29

creates per match

1.37

1.05

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Penafiel

1.29

União de Leiria

1.37

allows per match

Penafiel

1.05

União de Leiria

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Penafiel+0.00on par

União de Leiria+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Penafiel ↓

União de Leiria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Penafiel or draw

64%

Penafiel or União de Leiria

72%

Draw or União de Leiria

64%

Winning margin

Penafiel wins by 2+

15%

União de Leiria wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Penafiel 1+ goals

70%

Penafiel 2+ goals

34%

Penafiel 3+ goals

12%

União de Leiria 1+ goals

70%

União de Leiria 2+ goals

34%

União de Leiria 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Penafiel (draw refunded)

50%

União de Leiria (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Penafiel at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.05 · 133 matches

União de Leiria away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.14 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Penafiel attack 1.29 + União de Leiria defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.21

União de Leiria attack 1.37 + Penafiel defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Penafiel scores more

36%

level

28%

União de Leiria scores more

36%

Penafiel at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Penafiel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff