Penafiel 3–2 FC Porto B: Result & Stats

Penafiel

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

FC Porto B

11/11/2023

Segunda Liga · Round 10Estádio Municipal 25 de Abril

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 133+ matches

Penafiel44%

×Draw27%

FC Porto B30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PenafielExpected goals in this matchFC Porto B

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.11

Penafiel

1.41

FC Porto B

1.11

Penafiel creates 27% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 133 away

1.29

creates per match

1.18

1.05

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Penafiel

1.29

FC Porto B

1.18

allows per match

Penafiel

1.05

FC Porto B

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Penafiel+0.00on par

FC Porto B+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Penafiel ↓

FC Porto B →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Penafiel or draw

70%

Penafiel or FC Porto B

73%

Draw or FC Porto B

56%

Winning margin

Penafiel wins by 2+

21%

FC Porto B wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Penafiel 1+ goals

76%

Penafiel 2+ goals

41%

Penafiel 3+ goals

17%

FC Porto B 1+ goals

67%

FC Porto B 2+ goals

30%

FC Porto B 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Penafiel (draw refunded)

60%

FC Porto B (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Penafiel at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.05 · 133 matches

FC Porto B away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.53 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Penafiel attack 1.29 + FC Porto B defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.41

FC Porto B attack 1.18 + Penafiel defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Penafiel scores more

44%

level

27%

FC Porto B scores more

30%

Penafiel at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Penafiel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff