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Penafiel vs Cova De Piedade — Segunda Liga 2018

Penafiel
Penafiel
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cova De Piedade
Cova De Piedade
9/22/2018Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 5Estádio Municipal 25 de Abril (Penafiel)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Penafiel49%
×Draw27%
Cova De Piedade24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Penafiel
1.46
Cova De Piedade
0.94

Penafiel creates 55% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 46 away

creates per match

Penafiel
1.28
Cova De Piedade
0.83

allows per match

Penafiel
1.05
Cova De Piedade
1.63

finishing

Penafiel+0.00on par
Cova De Piedade+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Penafiel ↓

Cova De Piedade →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Penafiel or draw
76%
Penafiel or Cova De Piedade
73%
Draw or Cova De Piedade
51%

Winning margin

Penafiel wins by 2+
24%
Cova De Piedade wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Penafiel 1+ goals
77%
Penafiel 2+ goals
43%
Penafiel 3+ goals
18%
Cova De Piedade 1+ goals
61%
Cova De Piedade 2+ goals
24%
Cova De Piedade 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Penafiel (draw refunded)
67%
Cova De Piedade (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Penafiel at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.05 · 131 matches

Cova De Piedade away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.63 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Penafiel attack 1.28 + Cova De Piedade defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.46

Cova De Piedade attack 0.83 + Penafiel defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Penafiel scores more
49%
level
27%
Cova De Piedade scores more
24%

Penafiel at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Penafiel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Penafiel vs Cova De Piedade

Penafiel and Cova De Piedade drew 0-0 in Segunda Liga on September 22, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal 25 de Abril (Penafiel).