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Peña Balsamaiso vs Oyonesa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Peña Balsamaiso
Peña Balsamaiso
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Oyonesa
Oyonesa
4/16/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 29Estadio La Estrella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Peña Balsamaiso33%
×Draw26%
Oyonesa42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peña Balsamaiso
1.26
Oyonesa
1.46

Oyonesa creates 16% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 109 away

creates per match

Peña Balsamaiso
1.32
Oyonesa
1.33

allows per match

Peña Balsamaiso
1.58
Oyonesa
1.20

finishing

Peña Balsamaiso+0.00on par
Oyonesa+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peña Balsamaiso ↓

Oyonesa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Peña Balsamaiso or draw
58%
Peña Balsamaiso or Oyonesa
74%
Draw or Oyonesa
67%

Winning margin

Peña Balsamaiso wins by 2+
14%
Oyonesa wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Peña Balsamaiso 1+ goals
72%
Peña Balsamaiso 2+ goals
36%
Peña Balsamaiso 3+ goals
13%
Oyonesa 1+ goals
77%
Oyonesa 2+ goals
43%
Oyonesa 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Peña Balsamaiso (draw refunded)
44%
Oyonesa (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peña Balsamaiso at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.58 · 66 matches

Oyonesa away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.20 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peña Balsamaiso attack 1.32 + Oyonesa defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.26

Oyonesa attack 1.33 + Peña Balsamaiso defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Peña Balsamaiso scores more
33%
level
26%
Oyonesa scores more
42%

Oyonesa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Oyonesa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Peña Balsamaiso vs Oyonesa

Oyonesa beat Peña Balsamaiso 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on April 16, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio La Estrella in Logroño.