Peña Balsamaiso 1–0 Comillas: Result & Stats

Peña Balsamaiso

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Comillas

1/7/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 15Estadio La Estrella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Peña Balsamaiso45%

×Draw24%

Comillas31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Peña BalsamaisoExpected goals in this matchComillas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.32

Peña Balsamaiso

1.63

Comillas

1.32

Peña Balsamaiso creates 23% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 96 away

1.32

creates per match

1.06

1.58

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Peña Balsamaiso

1.32

Comillas

1.06

allows per match

Peña Balsamaiso

1.58

Comillas

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peña Balsamaiso+0.00on par

Comillas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peña Balsamaiso ↓

Comillas →

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Peña Balsamaiso or draw

69%

Peña Balsamaiso or Comillas

76%

Draw or Comillas

55%

Winning margin

Peña Balsamaiso wins by 2+

23%

Comillas wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Peña Balsamaiso 1+ goals

80%

Peña Balsamaiso 2+ goals

48%

Peña Balsamaiso 3+ goals

22%

Comillas 1+ goals

73%

Comillas 2+ goals

38%

Comillas 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Peña Balsamaiso (draw refunded)

59%

Comillas (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Peña Balsamaiso at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.58 · 66 matches

Comillas away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.93 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Peña Balsamaiso attack 1.32 + Comillas defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.63

Comillas attack 1.06 + Peña Balsamaiso defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Peña Balsamaiso scores more

45%

level

24%

Comillas scores more

31%

Peña Balsamaiso at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Peña Balsamaiso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff