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Pelister vs Besa Dobërdoll — Second League 2019

Pelister
Pelister
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Besa Dobërdoll
Besa Dobërdoll
8/27/2022Second LeagueSecond League · Round 2Stadion pod Tumbe Kafe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Pelister49%
×Draw25%
Besa Dobërdoll26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pelister
1.58
Besa Dobërdoll
1.08

Pelister creates 46% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 30 away

creates per match

Pelister
2.34
Besa Dobërdoll
1.67

allows per match

Pelister
0.50
Besa Dobërdoll
0.83

finishing

Pelister+0.00on par
Besa Dobërdoll+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pelister ↓

Besa Dobërdoll →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Pelister or draw
74%
Pelister or Besa Dobërdoll
75%
Draw or Besa Dobërdoll
51%

Winning margin

Pelister wins by 2+
25%
Besa Dobërdoll wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Pelister 1+ goals
79%
Pelister 2+ goals
47%
Pelister 3+ goals
21%
Besa Dobërdoll 1+ goals
66%
Besa Dobërdoll 2+ goals
29%
Besa Dobërdoll 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Pelister (draw refunded)
65%
Besa Dobërdoll (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pelister at home — creates 2.34, concedes 0.50 · 38 matches

Besa Dobërdoll away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.83 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pelister attack 2.34 + Besa Dobërdoll defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.58

Besa Dobërdoll attack 1.67 + Pelister defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Pelister scores more
49%
level
25%
Besa Dobërdoll scores more
26%

Pelister at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Pelister will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Pelister 0–0 Besa Dobërdoll

Pelister and Besa Dobërdoll drew 0-0 in Second League on August 27, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion pod Tumbe Kafe in Bitola.