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Pehchevo vs Sasa — Second League 2019

Pehchevo
Pehchevo
CANC
00:00
Sasa
Sasa
3/16/2020Second LeagueSecond League · East - 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Pehchevo48%
×Draw24%
Sasa27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pehchevo
1.65
Sasa
1.17

Pehchevo creates 41% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 82 away

creates per match

Pehchevo
1.59
Sasa
1.26

allows per match

Pehchevo
1.08
Sasa
1.70

finishing

Pehchevo+0.00on par
Sasa+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pehchevo ↓

Sasa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Pehchevo or draw
73%
Pehchevo or Sasa
76%
Draw or Sasa
52%

Winning margin

Pehchevo wins by 2+
26%
Sasa wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Pehchevo 1+ goals
81%
Pehchevo 2+ goals
49%
Pehchevo 3+ goals
23%
Sasa 1+ goals
69%
Sasa 2+ goals
33%
Sasa 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Pehchevo (draw refunded)
64%
Sasa (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pehchevo at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.08 · 37 matches

Sasa away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.70 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pehchevo attack 1.59 + Sasa defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.65

Sasa attack 1.26 + Pehchevo defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Pehchevo scores more
48%
level
24%
Sasa scores more
27%

Pehchevo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Pehchevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Pehchevo host Sasa

March 16, 2020: Pehchevo take on Sasa in Second League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.