PEC Zwolle W 1–3 Ajax W: Result & Stats

PEC Zwolle W

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Ajax W

11/10/2023

Eredivisie Women · Round 8Sportpark De Vegtlust

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

PEC Zwolle W23%

×Draw20%

Ajax W57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PEC Zwolle WExpected goals in this matchAjax W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

2.27

PEC Zwolle W

1.38

Ajax W

2.27

Ajax W creates 64% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 73 away

1.64

creates per match

2.58

1.97

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

PEC Zwolle W

1.64

Ajax W

2.58

allows per match

PEC Zwolle W

1.97

Ajax W

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PEC Zwolle W+0.00on par

Ajax W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PEC Zwolle W ↓

Ajax W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

PEC Zwolle W or draw

43%

PEC Zwolle W or Ajax W

80%

Draw or Ajax W

77%

Winning margin

PEC Zwolle W wins by 2+

10%

Ajax W wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

PEC Zwolle W 1+ goals

75%

PEC Zwolle W 2+ goals

40%

PEC Zwolle W 3+ goals

16%

Ajax W 1+ goals

90%

Ajax W 2+ goals

66%

Ajax W 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

PEC Zwolle W (draw refunded)

29%

Ajax W (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PEC Zwolle W at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.97 · 73 matches

Ajax W away — creates 2.58, concedes 1.12 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PEC Zwolle W attack 1.64 + Ajax W defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.38

Ajax W attack 2.58 + PEC Zwolle W defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

PEC Zwolle W scores more

23%

level

20%

Ajax W scores more

57%

Ajax W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Ajax W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff