PEC Zwolle 2–2 Heerenveen: Result & Stats

PEC Zwolle

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Heerenveen

1/13/2024

Eredivisie · Round 17MAC³PARK Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

PEC Zwolle41%

×Draw23%

Heerenveen36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PEC ZwolleExpected goals in this matchHeerenveen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.55

PEC Zwolle

1.67

Heerenveen

1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 19 away

1.50

creates per match

1.25

1.85

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

PEC Zwolle

1.50

Heerenveen

1.25

allows per match

PEC Zwolle

1.85

Heerenveen

1.84

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

PEC Zwolle-0.17scores less

Heerenveen-0.14scores less

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PEC Zwolle ↓

Heerenveen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

PEC Zwolle or draw

64%

PEC Zwolle or Heerenveen

77%

Draw or Heerenveen

59%

Winning margin

PEC Zwolle wins by 2+

21%

Heerenveen wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

PEC Zwolle 1+ goals

81%

PEC Zwolle 2+ goals

50%

PEC Zwolle 3+ goals

23%

Heerenveen 1+ goals

79%

Heerenveen 2+ goals

46%

Heerenveen 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

PEC Zwolle (draw refunded)

53%

Heerenveen (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PEC Zwolle at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.85 · 18 matches

Heerenveen away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PEC Zwolle attack 1.50 + Heerenveen defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.67

Heerenveen attack 1.25 + PEC Zwolle defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

PEC Zwolle scores more

41%

level

23%

Heerenveen scores more

36%

PEC Zwolle at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "PEC Zwolle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff