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PEC Zwolle vs Cercle Brugge — Friendlies Clubs 2026

PEC Zwolle
PEC Zwolle
Preview
13:00
Cercle Brugge
Cercle Brugge
7/18/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies
37%
Cercle Brugge
model favours
35%28%37%

PEC Zwolle score first in only 7% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

PEC Zwolle35%
×Draw28%
Cercle Brugge37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PEC Zwolle
1.13
Cercle Brugge
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

creates per match

PEC Zwolle
0.25
Cercle Brugge
1.33

allows per match

PEC Zwolle
1.00
Cercle Brugge
2.00

finishing

PEC Zwolle+0.00on par
Cercle Brugge+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PEC Zwolle ↓

Cercle Brugge →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

PEC Zwolle or draw
63%
PEC Zwolle or Cercle Brugge
72%
Draw or Cercle Brugge
65%

Winning margin

PEC Zwolle wins by 2+
14%
Cercle Brugge wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

PEC Zwolle 1+ goals
68%
PEC Zwolle 2+ goals
31%
PEC Zwolle 3+ goals
11%
Cercle Brugge 1+ goals
69%
Cercle Brugge 2+ goals
33%
Cercle Brugge 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

PEC Zwolle (draw refunded)
49%
Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PEC Zwolle at home — creates 0.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Cercle Brugge away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PEC Zwolle attack 0.25 + Cercle Brugge defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Cercle Brugge attack 1.33 + PEC Zwolle defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

PEC Zwolle scores more
35%
level
28%
Cercle Brugge scores more
37%

Cercle Brugge at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Cercle Brugge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Cercle Brugge score first in only 18% of matches
  • Cercle Brugge have scored in 10 games running
  • PEC Zwolle and Cercle Brugge have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Zwolle
LLLWL
Brugge
DLLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: PEC Zwolle host Cercle Brugge

July 18, 2026: PEC Zwolle take on Cercle Brugge in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.