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PEC Zwolle vs AEK Athens FC — Friendlies Clubs 2026

PEC Zwolle
PEC Zwolle
Preview
13:00
AEK Athens FC
AEK Athens FC
7/26/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies
43%
AEK Athens FC
model favours
29%27%43%

PEC Zwolle score first in only 7% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

PEC Zwolle29%
×Draw27%
AEK Athens FC43%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PEC Zwolle
1.06
AEK Athens FC
1.35

AEK Athens FC creates 27% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

PEC Zwolle
0.80
AEK Athens FC
1.50

allows per match

PEC Zwolle
1.20
AEK Athens FC
1.33

finishing

PEC Zwolle+0.00on par
AEK Athens FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PEC Zwolle ↓

AEK Athens FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

PEC Zwolle or draw
57%
PEC Zwolle or AEK Athens FC
73%
Draw or AEK Athens FC
71%

Winning margin

PEC Zwolle wins by 2+
11%
AEK Athens FC wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

PEC Zwolle 1+ goals
65%
PEC Zwolle 2+ goals
29%
PEC Zwolle 3+ goals
9%
AEK Athens FC 1+ goals
74%
AEK Athens FC 2+ goals
39%
AEK Athens FC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

PEC Zwolle (draw refunded)
40%
AEK Athens FC (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PEC Zwolle at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

AEK Athens FC away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PEC Zwolle attack 0.80 + AEK Athens FC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.06

AEK Athens FC attack 1.50 + PEC Zwolle defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

PEC Zwolle scores more
29%
level
27%
AEK Athens FC scores more
43%

AEK Athens FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "AEK Athens FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • PEC Zwolle and AEK Athens FC have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Zwolle
WLLLW
FC
WDWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

PEC Zwolle face AEK Athens FC (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with PEC Zwolle hosting AEK Athens FC. Match starts July 26, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.