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PEC Zwolle U21 vs Groningen U21 — U21 Divisie 1 2020

PEC Zwolle U21
PEC Zwolle U21
FT
1 – 1
Groningen U21
Groningen U21
10/29/2022U21 Divisie 1U21 Divisie 1 · Fall Season - 8Sportpark Be Quick '28 Veld 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

PEC Zwolle U2137%
×Draw21%
Groningen U2141%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PEC Zwolle U21
1.87
Groningen U21
1.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 70 away

creates per match

PEC Zwolle U21
2.11
Groningen U21
2.14

allows per match

PEC Zwolle U21
1.82
Groningen U21
1.63

finishing

PEC Zwolle U21+0.00on par
Groningen U21+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PEC Zwolle U21 ↓

Groningen U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

PEC Zwolle U21 or draw
59%
PEC Zwolle U21 or Groningen U21
79%
Draw or Groningen U21
63%

Winning margin

PEC Zwolle U21 wins by 2+
20%
Groningen U21 wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

PEC Zwolle U21 1+ goals
85%
PEC Zwolle U21 2+ goals
56%
PEC Zwolle U21 3+ goals
29%
Groningen U21 1+ goals
86%
Groningen U21 2+ goals
59%
Groningen U21 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

PEC Zwolle U21 (draw refunded)
47%
Groningen U21 (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PEC Zwolle U21 at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.82 · 38 matches

Groningen U21 away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.63 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PEC Zwolle U21 attack 2.11 + Groningen U21 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.87

Groningen U21 attack 2.14 + PEC Zwolle U21 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

PEC Zwolle U21 scores more
37%
level
21%
Groningen U21 scores more
41%

Groningen U21 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Groningen U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: PEC Zwolle U21 vs Groningen U21

PEC Zwolle U21 and Groningen U21 drew 1-1 in U21 Divisie 1 on October 29, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark Be Quick '28 Veld 5 in Zwolle.