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Peachtree City vs Tormenta II — USL League Two 2018

Peachtree City
Peachtree City
PST
23:30
Tormenta II
Tormenta II
5/30/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 16Peachtree City MOBA Soccer (Peachtree City, GA)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Peachtree City36%
×Draw22%
Tormenta II42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peachtree City
1.73
Tormenta II
1.88

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 23 away

creates per match

Peachtree City
2.19
Tormenta II
2.13

allows per match

Peachtree City
1.63
Tormenta II
1.26

finishing

Peachtree City+0.00on par
Tormenta II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peachtree City ↓

Tormenta II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Peachtree City or draw
58%
Peachtree City or Tormenta II
78%
Draw or Tormenta II
64%

Winning margin

Peachtree City wins by 2+
18%
Tormenta II wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Peachtree City 1+ goals
82%
Peachtree City 2+ goals
52%
Peachtree City 3+ goals
25%
Tormenta II 1+ goals
85%
Tormenta II 2+ goals
56%
Tormenta II 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Peachtree City (draw refunded)
46%
Tormenta II (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peachtree City at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

Tormenta II away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.26 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peachtree City attack 2.19 + Tormenta II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.73

Tormenta II attack 2.13 + Peachtree City defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Peachtree City scores more
36%
level
22%
Tormenta II scores more
42%

Tormenta II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tormenta II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Peachtree City host Tormenta II

May 30, 2020: Peachtree City take on Tormenta II in USL League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Peachtree City host Tormenta II at Peachtree City MOBA Soccer (Peachtree City, GA).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.