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Peachtree City vs SC United Bantams — USL League Two 2018

Peachtree City
Peachtree City
PST
23:30
SC United Bantams
SC United Bantams
5/23/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 11Peachtree City MOBA Soccer (Peachtree City, GA)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Peachtree City41%
×Draw22%
SC United Bantams37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peachtree City
1.81
SC United Bantams
1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 44 away

creates per match

Peachtree City
2.19
SC United Bantams
1.80

allows per match

Peachtree City
1.63
SC United Bantams
1.43

finishing

Peachtree City+0.00on par
SC United Bantams+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peachtree City ↓

SC United Bantams →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Peachtree City or draw
63%
Peachtree City or SC United Bantams
78%
Draw or SC United Bantams
59%

Winning margin

Peachtree City wins by 2+
22%
SC United Bantams wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Peachtree City 1+ goals
84%
Peachtree City 2+ goals
54%
Peachtree City 3+ goals
27%
SC United Bantams 1+ goals
82%
SC United Bantams 2+ goals
51%
SC United Bantams 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Peachtree City (draw refunded)
53%
SC United Bantams (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peachtree City at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

SC United Bantams away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.43 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peachtree City attack 2.19 + SC United Bantams defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.81

SC United Bantams attack 1.80 + Peachtree City defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Peachtree City scores more
41%
level
22%
SC United Bantams scores more
37%

Peachtree City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Peachtree City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Peachtree City host SC United Bantams

May 23, 2020: Peachtree City take on SC United Bantams in USL League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Peachtree City host SC United Bantams at Peachtree City MOBA Soccer (Peachtree City, GA).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.