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Peachtree City vs East Atlanta — USL League Two 2018

Peachtree City
Peachtree City
PST
23:30
East Atlanta
East Atlanta
6/27/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 42Peachtree City MOBA Soccer (Peachtree City, GA)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Peachtree City55%
×Draw20%
East Atlanta25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peachtree City
2.22
East Atlanta
1.44

Peachtree City creates 54% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 39 away

creates per match

Peachtree City
2.19
East Atlanta
1.26

allows per match

Peachtree City
1.63
East Atlanta
2.26

finishing

Peachtree City+0.00on par
East Atlanta+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peachtree City ↓

East Atlanta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Peachtree City or draw
75%
Peachtree City or East Atlanta
80%
Draw or East Atlanta
45%

Winning margin

Peachtree City wins by 2+
34%
East Atlanta wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Peachtree City 1+ goals
89%
Peachtree City 2+ goals
65%
Peachtree City 3+ goals
38%
East Atlanta 1+ goals
76%
East Atlanta 2+ goals
42%
East Atlanta 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Peachtree City (draw refunded)
69%
East Atlanta (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peachtree City at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

East Atlanta away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.26 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peachtree City attack 2.19 + East Atlanta defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 2.22

East Atlanta attack 1.26 + Peachtree City defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Peachtree City scores more
55%
level
20%
East Atlanta scores more
25%

Peachtree City at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Peachtree City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Peachtree City host East Atlanta

June 27, 2020: Peachtree City take on East Atlanta in USL League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Peachtree City host East Atlanta at Peachtree City MOBA Soccer (Peachtree City, GA).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.