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Peachtree City vs Charlotte Independence 2 — USL League Two 2018

Peachtree City
Peachtree City
PST
23:30
Charlotte Independence 2
Charlotte Independence 2
6/18/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 34Peachtree City MOBA Soccer (Peachtree City, GA)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Peachtree City52%
×Draw21%
Charlotte Independence 227%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peachtree City
2.20
Charlotte Independence 2
1.56

Peachtree City creates 41% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 42 away

creates per match

Peachtree City
2.19
Charlotte Independence 2
1.50

allows per match

Peachtree City
1.63
Charlotte Independence 2
2.21

finishing

Peachtree City+0.00on par
Charlotte Independence 2+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peachtree City ↓

Charlotte Independence 2 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Peachtree City or draw
73%
Peachtree City or Charlotte Independence 2
79%
Draw or Charlotte Independence 2
48%

Winning margin

Peachtree City wins by 2+
31%
Charlotte Independence 2 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Peachtree City 1+ goals
89%
Peachtree City 2+ goals
64%
Peachtree City 3+ goals
37%
Charlotte Independence 2 1+ goals
79%
Charlotte Independence 2 2+ goals
46%
Charlotte Independence 2 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Peachtree City (draw refunded)
66%
Charlotte Independence 2 (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peachtree City at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

Charlotte Independence 2 away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.21 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peachtree City attack 2.19 + Charlotte Independence 2 defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.20

Charlotte Independence 2 attack 1.50 + Peachtree City defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Peachtree City scores more
52%
level
21%
Charlotte Independence 2 scores more
27%

Peachtree City at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Peachtree City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Peachtree City vs Charlotte Independence 2 — Match Preview

Peachtree City face Charlotte Independence 2 on June 18, 2020 in this USL League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Peachtree City host Charlotte Independence 2 at Peachtree City MOBA Soccer (Peachtree City, GA).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.