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PDX vs OVF Alliance — USL League Two 2018

PDX
PDX
FT
2 – 1
OVF Alliance
OVF Alliance
6/12/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 24Eastside Timbers Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

PDX39%
×Draw20%
OVF Alliance40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PDX
2.11
OVF Alliance
2.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 12 away

creates per match

PDX
1.89
OVF Alliance
1.75

allows per match

PDX
2.50
OVF Alliance
2.33

finishing

PDX+0.00on par
OVF Alliance+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PDX ↓

OVF Alliance →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

PDX or draw
60%
PDX or OVF Alliance
80%
Draw or OVF Alliance
61%

Winning margin

PDX wins by 2+
22%
OVF Alliance wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

PDX 1+ goals
88%
PDX 2+ goals
62%
PDX 3+ goals
35%
OVF Alliance 1+ goals
88%
OVF Alliance 2+ goals
63%
OVF Alliance 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

PDX (draw refunded)
50%
OVF Alliance (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PDX at home — creates 1.89, concedes 2.50 · 18 matches

OVF Alliance away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PDX attack 1.89 + OVF Alliance defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.11

OVF Alliance attack 1.75 + PDX defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

PDX scores more
39%
level
20%
OVF Alliance scores more
40%

OVF Alliance at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "OVF Alliance will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: PDX 2–1 OVF Alliance

PDX beat OVF Alliance 2-1 in USL League Two on June 12, 2021.

The match was played at Eastside Timbers Sports Complex in Portland, Oregon.