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Paykan vs Naft Masjed Soleyman — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Paykan
Paykan
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Naft Masjed Soleyman
Naft Masjed Soleyman
6/27/2021Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 24Shahr-e Qods Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Paykan41%
×Draw33%
Naft Masjed Soleyman26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paykan
1.02
Naft Masjed Soleyman
0.74

Paykan creates 38% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 74 away

creates per match

Paykan
0.78
Naft Masjed Soleyman
0.45

allows per match

Paykan
1.04
Naft Masjed Soleyman
1.26

finishing

Paykan+0.00on par
Naft Masjed Soleyman+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paykan ↓

Naft Masjed Soleyman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Paykan or draw
74%
Paykan or Naft Masjed Soleyman
67%
Draw or Naft Masjed Soleyman
59%

Winning margin

Paykan wins by 2+
16%
Naft Masjed Soleyman wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Paykan 1+ goals
64%
Paykan 2+ goals
27%
Paykan 3+ goals
8%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 1+ goals
52%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 2+ goals
17%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Paykan (draw refunded)
61%
Naft Masjed Soleyman (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paykan at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.04 · 102 matches

Naft Masjed Soleyman away — creates 0.45, concedes 1.26 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paykan attack 0.78 + Naft Masjed Soleyman defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.02

Naft Masjed Soleyman attack 0.45 + Paykan defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Paykan scores more
41%
level
33%
Naft Masjed Soleyman scores more
26%

Paykan at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Paykan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Paykan vs Naft Masjed Soleyman

Paykan and Naft Masjed Soleyman drew 1-1 in Persian Gulf Pro League on June 27, 2021.

The match was played at Shahr-e Qods Stadium in Shahr-e Qods.