Pavlikeni 1–3 Vihar Slavyanovo: Result & Stats

Pavlikeni

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Vihar Slavyanovo

6/4/2022

Third League - Northwest · North-West - 34Stadion Gancho Panov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Pavlikeni42%

×Draw26%

Vihar Slavyanovo32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PavlikeniExpected goals in this matchVihar Slavyanovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.21

Pavlikeni

1.44

Vihar Slavyanovo

1.21

Pavlikeni creates 19% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 95 away

1.74

creates per match

1.33

1.09

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Pavlikeni

1.74

Vihar Slavyanovo

1.33

allows per match

Pavlikeni

1.09

Vihar Slavyanovo

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pavlikeni+0.00on par

Vihar Slavyanovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pavlikeni ↓

Vihar Slavyanovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Pavlikeni or draw

68%

Pavlikeni or Vihar Slavyanovo

74%

Draw or Vihar Slavyanovo

58%

Winning margin

Pavlikeni wins by 2+

20%

Vihar Slavyanovo wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Pavlikeni 1+ goals

76%

Pavlikeni 2+ goals

42%

Pavlikeni 3+ goals

18%

Vihar Slavyanovo 1+ goals

70%

Vihar Slavyanovo 2+ goals

34%

Vihar Slavyanovo 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Pavlikeni (draw refunded)

57%

Vihar Slavyanovo (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pavlikeni at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.09 · 105 matches

Vihar Slavyanovo away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.15 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pavlikeni attack 1.74 + Vihar Slavyanovo defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.44

Vihar Slavyanovo attack 1.33 + Pavlikeni defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Pavlikeni scores more

42%

level

26%

Vihar Slavyanovo scores more

32%

Pavlikeni at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Pavlikeni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Pavlikeni 1–3 Vihar Slavyanovo

Vihar Slavyanovo beat Pavlikeni 3-1 in Third League - Northwest on June 4, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Gancho Panov in Pavlikeni.

Pavlikeni vs Vihar Slavyanovo — Third League - Northwest 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Third League - Northwest: Pavlikeni 1–3 Vihar Slavyanovo