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Pavlikeni vs Drenovets — Third League - Northwest 2018

Pavlikeni
Pavlikeni
FT
2 – 0
Drenovets
Drenovets
10/16/2021Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 11Stadion Gancho Panov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Pavlikeni65%
×Draw20%
Drenovets15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pavlikeni
2.15
Drenovets
0.93

Pavlikeni creates 131% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 68 away

creates per match

Pavlikeni
1.74
Drenovets
0.76

allows per match

Pavlikeni
1.09
Drenovets
2.56

finishing

Pavlikeni+0.00on par
Drenovets+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pavlikeni ↓

Drenovets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Pavlikeni or draw
85%
Pavlikeni or Drenovets
80%
Draw or Drenovets
35%

Winning margin

Pavlikeni wins by 2+
41%
Drenovets wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Pavlikeni 1+ goals
88%
Pavlikeni 2+ goals
63%
Pavlikeni 3+ goals
36%
Drenovets 1+ goals
61%
Drenovets 2+ goals
24%
Drenovets 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Pavlikeni (draw refunded)
81%
Drenovets (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pavlikeni at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.09 · 105 matches

Drenovets away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.56 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pavlikeni attack 1.74 + Drenovets defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.15

Drenovets attack 0.76 + Pavlikeni defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Pavlikeni scores more
65%
level
20%
Drenovets scores more
15%

Pavlikeni at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Pavlikeni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Pavlikeni 2–0 Drenovets

Pavlikeni beat Drenovets 2-0 in Third League - Northwest on October 16, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Gancho Panov in Pavlikeni.