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Patriotas vs Huila — Primera A 2018

Patriotas
Patriotas
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Huila
Huila
9/15/2018Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 10Estadio La Independencia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Patriotas47%
×Draw30%
Huila22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Patriotas
1.21
Huila
0.73

Patriotas creates 66% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 70 away

creates per match

Patriotas
1.06
Huila
0.53

allows per match

Patriotas
0.93
Huila
1.36

finishing

Patriotas+0.00on par
Huila+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Patriotas ↓

Huila →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Patriotas or draw
78%
Patriotas or Huila
70%
Draw or Huila
53%

Winning margin

Patriotas wins by 2+
21%
Huila wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Patriotas 1+ goals
70%
Patriotas 2+ goals
34%
Patriotas 3+ goals
12%
Huila 1+ goals
52%
Huila 2+ goals
17%
Huila 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Patriotas (draw refunded)
68%
Huila (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Patriotas at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.93 · 109 matches

Huila away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.36 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Patriotas attack 1.06 + Huila defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.21

Huila attack 0.53 + Patriotas defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Patriotas scores more
47%
level
30%
Huila scores more
22%

Patriotas at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Patriotas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Patriotas 1–0 Huila

Patriotas beat Huila 1-0 in Primera A on September 15, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio La Independencia in Tunja.