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Pascoe Vale vs Langwarrin — Victoria NPL 2 2021

Pascoe Vale
Pascoe Vale
FT
1 – 1
Langwarrin
Langwarrin
5/14/2021Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 8CB Smith Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Pascoe Vale46%
×Draw22%
Langwarrin32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pascoe Vale
1.87
Langwarrin
1.52

Pascoe Vale creates 23% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 67 away

creates per match

Pascoe Vale
1.90
Langwarrin
1.42

allows per match

Pascoe Vale
1.61
Langwarrin
1.84

finishing

Pascoe Vale+0.00on par
Langwarrin+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pascoe Vale ↓

Langwarrin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Pascoe Vale or draw
68%
Pascoe Vale or Langwarrin
78%
Draw or Langwarrin
54%

Winning margin

Pascoe Vale wins by 2+
25%
Langwarrin wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Pascoe Vale 1+ goals
85%
Pascoe Vale 2+ goals
56%
Pascoe Vale 3+ goals
29%
Langwarrin 1+ goals
78%
Langwarrin 2+ goals
45%
Langwarrin 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Pascoe Vale (draw refunded)
59%
Langwarrin (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pascoe Vale at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.61 · 31 matches

Langwarrin away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.84 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pascoe Vale attack 1.90 + Langwarrin defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.87

Langwarrin attack 1.42 + Pascoe Vale defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Pascoe Vale scores more
46%
level
22%
Langwarrin scores more
32%

Pascoe Vale at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Pascoe Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pascoe Vale vs Langwarrin

Pascoe Vale and Langwarrin drew 1-1 in Victoria NPL 2 on May 14, 2021.

The match was played at CB Smith Reserve in Fawkner.