Pasaia KE 1–0 Deusto: Result & Stats

Pasaia KE

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Deusto

9/30/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 4Estadio Don Bosco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Pasaia KE35%

×Draw29%

Deusto36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pasaia KEExpected goals in this matchDeusto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.15

Pasaia KE

1.12

Deusto

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 112 home / 111 away

0.93

creates per match

0.98

1.31

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Pasaia KE

0.93

Deusto

0.98

allows per match

Pasaia KE

1.31

Deusto

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pasaia KE+0.00on par

Deusto+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pasaia KE ↓

Deusto →

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Pasaia KE or draw

64%

Pasaia KE or Deusto

71%

Draw or Deusto

65%

Winning margin

Pasaia KE wins by 2+

14%

Deusto wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Pasaia KE 1+ goals

67%

Pasaia KE 2+ goals

31%

Pasaia KE 3+ goals

10%

Deusto 1+ goals

68%

Deusto 2+ goals

32%

Deusto 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Pasaia KE (draw refunded)

49%

Deusto (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Pasaia KE at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.31 · 112 matches

Deusto away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.31 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Pasaia KE attack 0.93 + Deusto defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.12

Deusto attack 0.98 + Pasaia KE defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 36%?"

Pasaia KE scores more

35%

level

29%

Deusto scores more

36%

Deusto at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Deusto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff