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PAS Giannina vs PAOK — Super League 1 2018

PAS Giannina
PAS Giannina
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
PAOK
PAOK
12/15/2021Super League 1Super League 1 · Round 14Stadio Zosimades

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

PAS Giannina25%
×Draw27%
PAOK48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PAS Giannina
0.96
PAOK
1.44

PAOK creates 50% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 137 away

creates per match

PAS Giannina
0.89
PAOK
1.72

allows per match

PAS Giannina
1.17
PAOK
1.03

finishing

PAS Giannina+0.00on par
PAOK+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PAS Giannina ↓

PAOK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

PAS Giannina or draw
52%
PAS Giannina or PAOK
73%
Draw or PAOK
75%

Winning margin

PAS Giannina wins by 2+
9%
PAOK wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

PAS Giannina 1+ goals
62%
PAS Giannina 2+ goals
25%
PAS Giannina 3+ goals
7%
PAOK 1+ goals
76%
PAOK 2+ goals
42%
PAOK 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

PAS Giannina (draw refunded)
34%
PAOK (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PAS Giannina at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.17 · 82 matches

PAOK away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.03 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PAS Giannina attack 0.89 + PAOK defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.96

PAOK attack 1.72 + PAS Giannina defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

PAS Giannina scores more
25%
level
27%
PAOK scores more
48%

PAOK at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "PAOK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: PAS Giannina vs PAOK

PAOK beat PAS Giannina 4-0 in Super League 1 on December 15, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Zosimades in Ioannina.