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PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos — Super League 1 2018

PAS Giannina
PAS Giannina
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Panetolikos
Panetolikos
11/6/2021Super League 1Super League 1 · Round 9Stadio Zosimades

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

PAS Giannina40%
×Draw29%
Panetolikos31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PAS Giannina
1.19
Panetolikos
1.02

PAS Giannina creates 17% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 135 away

creates per match

PAS Giannina
0.89
Panetolikos
0.87

allows per match

PAS Giannina
1.17
Panetolikos
1.49

finishing

PAS Giannina+0.00on par
Panetolikos+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PAS Giannina ↓

Panetolikos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

PAS Giannina or draw
69%
PAS Giannina or Panetolikos
71%
Draw or Panetolikos
60%

Winning margin

PAS Giannina wins by 2+
17%
Panetolikos wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

PAS Giannina 1+ goals
70%
PAS Giannina 2+ goals
33%
PAS Giannina 3+ goals
12%
Panetolikos 1+ goals
64%
Panetolikos 2+ goals
27%
Panetolikos 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

PAS Giannina (draw refunded)
56%
Panetolikos (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PAS Giannina at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.17 · 82 matches

Panetolikos away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.49 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PAS Giannina attack 0.89 + Panetolikos defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.19

Panetolikos attack 0.87 + PAS Giannina defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

PAS Giannina scores more
40%
level
29%
Panetolikos scores more
31%

PAS Giannina at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "PAS Giannina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League 1: PAS Giannina 3–0 Panetolikos

PAS Giannina beat Panetolikos 3-0 in Super League 1 on November 6, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Zosimades in Ioannina.