PAS Giannina 1–2 Olympiakos Piraeus: Result & Stats

PAS Giannina

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Olympiakos Piraeus

J. Vuković 14' (OG)

L. Christodoulopoulos 37'

A. Skondras 8' (OG)

1/19/2019

Super League 1 · Round 17Zosimades National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

PAS Giannina20%

×Draw27%

Olympiakos Piraeus53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PAS GianninaExpected goals in this matchOlympiakos Piraeus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.78

1.44

PAS Giannina

0.78

Olympiakos Piraeus

1.44

Olympiakos Piraeus creates 85% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 137 away

0.88

creates per match

1.71

1.17

allows per match

0.69

creates per match

PAS Giannina

0.88

Olympiakos Piraeus

1.71

allows per match

PAS Giannina

1.17

Olympiakos Piraeus

0.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PAS Giannina+0.00on par

Olympiakos Piraeus+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PAS Giannina ↓

Olympiakos Piraeus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–116%

0–211%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

PAS Giannina or draw

47%

PAS Giannina or Olympiakos Piraeus

73%

Draw or Olympiakos Piraeus

80%

Winning margin

PAS Giannina wins by 2+

6%

Olympiakos Piraeus wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

PAS Giannina 1+ goals

54%

PAS Giannina 2+ goals

18%

PAS Giannina 3+ goals

4%

Olympiakos Piraeus 1+ goals

76%

Olympiakos Piraeus 2+ goals

42%

Olympiakos Piraeus 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

PAS Giannina (draw refunded)

28%

Olympiakos Piraeus (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PAS Giannina at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.17 · 89 matches

Olympiakos Piraeus away — creates 1.71, concedes 0.69 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PAS Giannina attack 0.88 + Olympiakos Piraeus defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.78

Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.71 + PAS Giannina defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

PAS Giannina scores more

20%

level

27%

Olympiakos Piraeus scores more

53%

Olympiakos Piraeus at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Olympiakos Piraeus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

A. SkondrasOwn goal

14'

J. VukovićOwn goal

23'

Andreas Bouchalakis

37'

L. Christodoulopoulos↳ Daniel Podence

39'

Michalis Boukouvalas

59'

Alexandros Nikolias

65'

S. Athanasiadis← E. Giakos

71'

Koka← Guerrero

72'

Giorgos Pamlidis

77'

Leonardo Koutris

80'

G. Xydas← G. Pamlidis

83'

V. Naumets← S. Siontis

84'

Daniel Podence

87'

B. Natcho← K. Fortounis

90'

Stefanos Athanasiadis

90+2'

V. Torosidis← Daniel Podence

Shots

Statistics

PASOlympiakos

Overview

5Total Shots8

4Corners7

19Fouls15

Shots

5Total Shots8

2On Target4

3Off Target4

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

19Fouls15

4Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

3Offsides3