PAS Giannina 1–0 Lamia: Result & Stats

PAS Giannina

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Lamia

2/28/2022

Super League 1 · Round 25Stadio Zosimades

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

PAS Giannina43%

×Draw29%

Lamia28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PAS GianninaExpected goals in this matchLamia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

0.93

PAS Giannina

1.22

Lamia

0.93

PAS Giannina creates 31% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 119 away

0.89

creates per match

0.70

1.17

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

PAS Giannina

0.89

Lamia

0.70

allows per match

PAS Giannina

1.17

Lamia

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PAS Giannina+0.00on par

Lamia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PAS Giannina ↓

Lamia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

PAS Giannina or draw

72%

PAS Giannina or Lamia

71%

Draw or Lamia

57%

Winning margin

PAS Giannina wins by 2+

19%

Lamia wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

PAS Giannina 1+ goals

70%

PAS Giannina 2+ goals

34%

PAS Giannina 3+ goals

12%

Lamia 1+ goals

61%

Lamia 2+ goals

24%

Lamia 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

PAS Giannina (draw refunded)

60%

Lamia (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PAS Giannina at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.17 · 82 matches

Lamia away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.54 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PAS Giannina attack 0.89 + Lamia defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.22

Lamia attack 0.70 + PAS Giannina defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

PAS Giannina scores more

43%

level

29%

Lamia scores more

28%

PAS Giannina at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "PAS Giannina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff