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PAS Giannina vs AEK Athens FC — Super League 1 2018

PAS Giannina
PAS Giannina
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
AEK Athens FC
AEK Athens FC
11/27/2021Super League 1Super League 1 · Round 11Stadio Zosimades

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

PAS Giannina26%
×Draw28%
AEK Athens FC46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PAS Giannina
0.95
AEK Athens FC
1.35

AEK Athens FC creates 42% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 137 away

creates per match

PAS Giannina
0.89
AEK Athens FC
1.53

allows per match

PAS Giannina
1.17
AEK Athens FC
1.00

finishing

PAS Giannina+0.00on par
AEK Athens FC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PAS Giannina ↓

AEK Athens FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

PAS Giannina or draw
54%
PAS Giannina or AEK Athens FC
72%
Draw or AEK Athens FC
74%

Winning margin

PAS Giannina wins by 2+
9%
AEK Athens FC wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

PAS Giannina 1+ goals
61%
PAS Giannina 2+ goals
25%
PAS Giannina 3+ goals
7%
AEK Athens FC 1+ goals
74%
AEK Athens FC 2+ goals
39%
AEK Athens FC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

PAS Giannina (draw refunded)
36%
AEK Athens FC (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PAS Giannina at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.17 · 82 matches

AEK Athens FC away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.00 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PAS Giannina attack 0.89 + AEK Athens FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.95

AEK Athens FC attack 1.53 + PAS Giannina defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

PAS Giannina scores more
26%
level
28%
AEK Athens FC scores more
46%

AEK Athens FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "AEK Athens FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: PAS Giannina vs AEK Athens FC

AEK Athens FC beat PAS Giannina 2-1 in Super League 1 on November 27, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Zosimades in Ioannina.